Archive for the ‘ Macro View ’ Category

Economic Indicators – IIP or PMI data..

Thursday, February 6th, 2014

Economic data or indicators provide measurements for evaluating the health of the economy. They also give us a fair view of the current business cycles, Investment and consumption patterns.

Economic Indicators are broadly categorized as Leading Indicators & Lagging Indicators.

Leading Indicators : These Indicators indicate a change even before the economy factors the adjustments. They are based on current data & are forward looking , discount the current values according to future expectations. Stock Markets are the perfect example of a Leading Indicator.

Lagging Indicators :  These Indicators reflect the economy’s  historical performance and confirm the trends with a time lag. They provide us a confirmation of where we are and where we have been.  Unemployment data is a lagging indicator. The unemployment rate may show increase even if the economy is recovering. Historically data suggests the Markets turn much before the Unemployment rate peaks.

Today we are going to discuss two important manufacturing data points

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Understanding RBI Steps to Arrest Rupee Decline

Saturday, November 16th, 2013

RBI

The RBI Governor had a Media Briefing on last Wednesday. The Governor tried to calm market fears on major two issues. One, the Impact on the Rupee as the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) Dollar Demand is back into the market and Second the concern on RBI Policy rates.

The Key takeaways from his briefing are as below:

  • The Governor Expressed satisfaction on the fact that the trade deficit has been quite in control and he estimated current account deficit at USD56 Billion for the current year. This estimate stands USD32 Billion lower than last year and well under 3% of the GDP. The Exports over the last five months have been growing in double digits. Additionally RBI has already raised USD 18 billion through recent initiatives of FCNR (B) and banking capital.

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